Safe or stuffed? Who falls foul of AK's three term rule

If you look at article 132 of the by-laws that govern Turkey's ruling AK Party, you will find a clause that is sensible and democratic. It imposes a strict three term limit on MPs and mayors, presumably to ensure youth and vigour and prevent cults of personality among the party's ranks.

The article reads:

Article 132: Repeat candidacy of elected party candidates

Mayors and members of parliament who become a candidate from an AK Party list and are subsequently elected can be a candidate for a maximum three terms.

But this was written when the party was established, before its 2002 election victory that surprised everyone, including the founders, and well before the 2007 and 2011 elections, where the victories were even greater.

Party leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has come to adopt a looser interpretation of article 132. The three term limit remains, he says, but it's perfectly possible to take a break for one term and then return. It is also possible for third term MPs to go off and spend a term as mayor of Istanbul, for example, and then return to parliament afterwards.

Another flaw with the article is that the big man himself is affected by it. The prime minister has repeatedly declared he will not serve a fourth term; rather than modify his own party's by-laws, he would rather change the constitution to make himself a French-style president with executive powers.

Mr Erdoğan's ill-disguised ambitions do a pretty good job of disguising the effect of the three-term rule on the rest of his cabinet, however. 16 ministers - that's nearly two-thirds of his cabinet - will be unable to stand as MPs at the next general election, which under current rules is due for 2015.

Rumours abound on who, particularly among the cabinet's baby boomers, will retire and who will conveniently find work leading a largish council for three or four years. We'll consider some of those in another entry; for now, here is our guide to who's stuffed and who's safe.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Prime Minister Elected 9 March 2003 STUFFED	Bülent Arınç Deputy PM Elected 3 November 2002 STUFFED	Beşir Atalay Deputy PM Elected 3 November 2002 STUFFED
Ali Babacan Deputy PM Elected 3 November 2002 STUFFED	Bekir Bozdağ Deputy PM Elected 3 November 2002 STUFFED	Ahmet Davutoğlu Foreign affairs Elected 12 June 2011 SAFE
Muammer Güler Interior affairs Elected 12 June 2011 SAFE	Sadullah Ergin Justice Elected 3 November 2002 STUFFED	Mehmet Şimşek Finance Elected 22 July 2007 SAFE
Mehmet Müezzinoğlu Health Elected 22 July 2007 SAFE	İsmet Yılmaz Defence Elected 12 June 2011 SAFE	Nabi Avcı Education Elected 12 June 2011 SAFE
Egemen Bağış European Union affairs Elected 3 November 2002 STUFFED	Zafer Çağlayan Economy  Elected 22 July 2007 SAFE	Binali Yıldırım Transport, communications Elected 3 November 2002 STUFFED
Mehmet Mehdi Eker Food and agriculture Elected 3 November 2002 STUFFED	Erdoğan Bayraktar Environment and cities Elected 12 June 2011 SAFE	Veysel Eroğlu Forests and water Elected 12 June 2011 SAFE
Cevdet Yılmaz Development Elected 22 July 2007 SAFE	Taner Yıldız Energy, natural resources Elected 3 November 2002 STUFFED	Nihat Ergün Science and industry Elected 3 November 2002 STUFFED
Faruk Çelik Work, social security Elected 3 November 2002 STUFFED	Ömer Çelik Culture and tourism Elected 3 November 2002 STUFFED	Fatma Şahin Family and social policies Elected 3 November 2002 STUFFED
Suat Kılıç Youth and sport Elected 3 November 2002 STUFFED	Hayati Yazıcı Customs and trade Elected 3 November 2002 STUFFED